A Silver Lining in an Economy Declining

With the cost of energy soaring, stocks diving, home values plunging and the jobless rate rising, it’s hard to find much of a silver lining in a nation that’s in an economic downturn. But according to a new report by a British-based farm business consulting group, the negative economy might just be what the natural health doctor ordered. This is because organic foods could very well cost less than the traditional fruits and vegetables bought and sold in your grocer’s produce section.

Chemical fertilizers used by industrial and small business farmers require oil, far more than organic fertilizers do. Thus, with the cost of oil projected to be as much as $200 a barrel by 2013, the widespread use of these chemical fertilizers is likely to drop because the cost of using chemical fertilizers by farmers will be so high that any perceived benefit will be too high to justify their cost. This is what the researchers believe will ultimately end up happening if economists’ prognostications prove accurate.

Chemical fertilizers are popular today because they’re efficient – considering what they cost relative to natural fertilizers (for now, at least) – and provide the proper amount of nutrients to the soil for plants’ sustenance. But in addition to the nutrients that feed the plants, chemical fertilizers leave a “chemical footprint,” if you will, where toxic minerals infect the soil and diminish the viability of the soil itself. Thus, if one were to continue using chemical fertilizers over several years, eventually, their effectiveness diminishes as the soil becomes corroded. The farmer then looks to other sources to provide some kind of life to the crops’ production levels, thus further harming the soil. The farmer then goes out and looks for the next best thing to increase production; one that has even more chemicals in it…it’s a vicious cycle! And it’s a cycle that, long term, costs the farmer more money because he or she is spending more on chemical fertilizers and pesticides than if he or she were to h
ave purchased a natural fertilizer from the get-go.

But based on the researchers’ analysis, if the cost of oil rises as it’s projected to, farmers will forgo chemical fertilizers after conducting some cost-benefit analysis.

For instance, according to Anderson’s analysis (the British-based farming business consultants that conducted the study), the profit margin of wheat and barley farmers will be approximately $130 more if they use organic methods rather than chemical fertilizers if the cost of oil approaches $200 a barrel by 2013. Now, $130 may not seem like a lot (it does to me!) but that’s $130 a farmer didn’t have to spend on his business itself. Sounds to me like any farmer would jump at that deal.

People that don’t buy organic fruits and vegetables don’t do it because of the cost it is compared to traditionally-grown produce. Perhaps there are other reasons, but I can’t think of any. So as strange as it is to say, the economy as it is is great news for organic food shoppers (and food shoppers in general) because more farmers will start growing organically, meaning more supply, meaning more competition, meaning a decrease in price for organic foods. This is great news not only for our wallets but for the country’s food supply as well.

So I guess the old cliché is true after all – every cloud really does have a silver lining.